ext_74558 ([identity profile] gustavolacerda.livejournal.com) wrote in [personal profile] interstice 2010-11-19 05:59 am (UTC)

I would think that the natural loss function here would come from a proper scoring rule (https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Scoring_rule#Proper_scoring_rule), since that by definition incentives honest reporting of subjective probabilities.

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